We hosted a discussion on Syrian Migration on Thursday, September 17, 2015 - 2:00pm in our online video conference space: http://carmenconnect.osu.edu/mideast-headlines The Center director, Alam Payind, provided the following analysis. 

According to the UN, 50% of Syrians are either internally displaced, have become refugees or have been killed. From the Guardian:

"More than 4 million refugees have fled Syria since the war there began in 2011.According to the UN’s refugee agency, almost 1.8 million have gone to Turkey, more than 600,000 to Jordan and 1 million to Lebanon – a country whose population is just 4 million.. . .Angela Merkel said Germany expected to take at least 800,000 asylum seekers this year. The figure is likely to go up, and could hit 1 million, Berlin says. . . Between June 2014 and June 2015, the UK took 166 Syrian refugees.” 

Since spring of 2011, in the span of 4 years, it has come to this situation and the carnage continues. At the same time, European countries are feeling the heat of ISIL, including sleeper cells in those countries.  This is increasing security concerns regarding the immigrants. 

In regard to recent immigrant crisis in Europe, one has to start by asking why there are so many migrating. It should also be noted that the crisis has been ongoing in neighboring Middle Eastern countries for quite some time.  In the case of Iraq, many immigrants came after U.S. actions of removing Saddam Hussein. Now, the whole region is not a place to live. They are escaping that kind of life - under bombardment, killing, people take their families and go to neighboring countries.

Some are of the opinion that the U.S. should take in more Syrian immigrants, especially because they need to atone for the mistake of going into Iraq. It’s unfair to say United States doesn't accept enough refugees because US is always accepting a large number of displaced people, in any case. Further, president Obama recently approved 10,000, and Secretary of State, John Kerry, announced later that the U.S. would accept around 100,000 in the coming years.  

The security concern regarding terrorism some pundits are using a way to persuade the public that we shouldn’t allow more immigrants doesn’t hold water.  The U.S. has mechanisms to purge the undesirable ones. INS, CIA, FBI, Homeland Security are conducting thorough searches. Some immigrants, such as Somalis, Afghans and Pakistanis came through Mexico, and their kids got radicalized once they settled in the U.S., but were discovered. 

Another point is that the 22 countries in the Arab league are miserably failing in this area. Arab countries did not accept even a fraction of what Australians, French and German received, especially the oil-rich countries. This is a shame because they need labor. These are highly qualified, young and productive, engineers and doctors. 

Background of current global dynamics:

The alliances, and resulting global dynamics, reflect the Cold War era.  Russia and Iran are supporting Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.  He is strongly supported by both countries for some of the following factors. There are four Muslim-majority countries which are Shi’i majority: one is Iran. In Syria, the majority of the Syrians are Sunni Muslims, but a minority approximately 11-12% are ‘Alawite Shi'i, and the government is ‘Alawite. The Iranian Government supports that government due, at least in part, to its Shi’i identity.

Hussein had kept Iran in check, until the U.S. removed him from power. Shi’i power in Iraq grew immensely, as well. All of the sudden after approximately 1400 years of Sunnis being in power in Iraq, Shi'i were brought to power by the U.S.-supported government.  That government failed to integrate Sunnis, did not properly represent their interests, and mistreated them, created the fertile ground for ISIL to form.  Iraq had the largest standing army in the region for some time, then many of those soldiers turned to the Islamic State of Iraq, which later became the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant, or ISIL.

Fallout from Arab uprisings:

Arab Uprising which took place in Syria as well as other Arab countries - in those countries dictators were in control for many years. If you add Hafiz and Bashar al-Assad's years in office, that makes 40 years in power. The people were tired of the same regime for so long - as in the cases of Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia. . . the uprising was about that situation of dictatorship. Mainly by younger, computer-savvy group. But, amateur in terms of how to create a cohesive organization to take over government. That's why in Egypt Ikhwan al-Muslimin (Muslim Brotherhood) was able to gain power. They filled the vacuum.

Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in comparison with the current situation in Syria:

There are similarities with Afghanistan's history.  The current Syrian displacement mirrors the impact of the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan on its population between 1979 and 1989 in terms of numbers.  Afghanistan's population, at the time of the invasion, was approximately 20 million, as Syria's was at the beginning of this conflict. Afghanistan also experienced devastation at the level of 50% of its population being either displaced, disabled or killed. When the Mujahidin were fighting the Soviets, they were supported by U.S., and also by Sunni Arab Gulf countries.  The main difference is that for Afghanistan it was a result of a foreign invasion, whereas in Syria, its own government is fighting its people.   

In the Q&A session afterward, we addressed the US's role in the Middle East in general, Islamophobia and its impact on U.S. foreign policy, and importance of rule of law.