February 26, 2016

Update on Syrian Migration

We posted on Syrian migration back in September, and hosted a conversation online. According to the UN, 50% of Syrians are now either internally displaced, have become refugees or have been killed. The following statistics we quoted from the Guardian remain relevant:

"More than 4 million refugees have fled Syria since the war there began in 2011. According to the UN’s refugee agency, almost 1.8 million have gone to Turkey, more than 600,000 to Jordan and 1 million to Lebanon – a country whose population is just 4 million.. . .The figure is likely to go up, and could hit 1 million [in Germany], Berlin says. . . Between June 2014 and June 2015, the UK took 166 Syrian refugees.”

As the Syrian Civil War continues, so do the trends associated with Syrian migration. These include: increasing challenges with placement, processing of paperwork and social backlash. The concern regarding terrorist infiltration also grows. One of the questions that continues to need clarification that relates to these concerns is increasing Islamophobia in the U.S. and Europe, and a disillusionment or outright rejection of multiculturalism.

According to the UNHCR, the number of refugees in states neighboring Syria continues to increase, reaching nearly 4.6 million persons as of January 19, 2016. Figure 1 below illustrates the ongoing trend. Likewise, the number of Syrians that have applied for asylum in Europe has also increased. While Europe is experiencing migration from many places, such as North Africa, the vast majority of asylum applications have come from Syrian refugees. According to Eurostat, from January to October 2015, there were approximately 180,000 Syrians applying for asylum for the first time. This is twice the number of applications from the next largest refugee group, Afghans.

Figure 1:

Image source: Gabriel Giddens, Data source: UNHCR

Resettlement for these asylum seekers has been contentious. The European countries that have been the most willing to accept Syrian refugees – Germany, Sweden, and Serbia – are experiencing administrative, social, and national security challenges at a level they did not anticipate. Regarding administration, since last October, Germany has struggled to process Syrian migrants. Authorities have tried to accommodate refugees without sufficient documentation, but standards are tightening with the growing concern that militants are among the refugees. Additionally, physical space is an issue; Germany is having trouble finding places for the refugees to stay. As a consequence of these and other factors, acceptance of refugees in Germany has started to slow down, with as many as 40% of refugees being denied asylum in January.

An additional factor is the social reaction. The attempted integration of refugees into German towns has been met with considerable backlash. In late December 2015, there were reports of sexual assaults by refugees against German citizens prompting civil unrest in Cologne, including violent assaults and protests. On New Year’s Eve, German police responded to hundreds of reported assaults targeting Syrian refugees. Protests have also occurred at various locations through the country. Similarly, Sweden is also facing significant public backlash to the admittance of thousands of refugees.

The pressures of the Syrian refugee populations are forcing the governments of Germany and Sweden to take drastic measures to control the situation. For example, Germany has imposed tougher deportation rules for migrants. Economic policies are also becoming heavy-handed. Denmark has passed a controversial law authorizing the seizure of migrants’ valuables – excluding very personal items – to finance resettlement.

National security concerns are growing as recent reports indicate that the Islamic State Syria (IS) is developing fake passports. This has led Germany’s domestic intelligence agency to believe that IS fighters have successfully infiltrated the country through the refugee population. While there is no evidence of a coordinated terrorist attack being planned, German authorities are on high alert as they rush to identify potential IS fighters. On New Year’s Eve, German police shut down the main train station in Munich amid fear of a terrorist attack.

The refugee situation in the Middle East puts the situation in Europe into perspective, however. Countries of the region are struggling to accommodate the much larger refugee populations than those of Europe. As Figure 2 shows, the vast majority of refugees are in countries neighboring Syria –Turkey especially. As of December 31, 2015, Turkey has 2.5 million registered Syrian refugees and is continuing to admit more, despite approaching its maximum capacity. In late January and early February 2016, heavy Russian bombing and ground attacks by the Syrian Army north of Aleppo have forced thousands of Syrian civilians to flee to Turkey. According to Turkish officials, as many as 15,000 have been accepted, and humanitarian organizations have set up camps to support another 35,000 on the Syrian side of the border. As of February 8, 2016, Turkey has closed the Oncupinar border crossing, resulting in substantial pressure from European leaders to both admit Syrian refugees, and stem the flow of refugees from Turkey into Europe.

Figure 2:

Source: Vox

As Middle Eastern countries grapple with the challenges of accepting refugees, the refugees are growing increasingly frustrated. While European countries have attempted to resettle migrants in various cities, the significantly larger populations have prevented Middle Eastern countries from doing the same. Refugees are consequently residing in refugee camps along the Syrian border in countries like Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, which can be seen on this interactive map. These camps have grown dramatically and have suboptimal conditions.

One notable camp is the Zaatari camp in the Mafraq Governorate of Jordan. Its population has reached 80,000 people as of January 2016. The UNHCR has helped provide medical services, community mobilization, water and sanitation, education, and general supplies for the winter. However, the UNHCR and other aid organizations are still lacking sufficient supplies. Moreover, the highly dense area is susceptible to crime like prostitution and drug dealing.

For updated information internally displaced persons in Syria and refugees in the Middle East, refer to this interactive map.

Sources:

Migrant crisis: Migration to Europe explained in seven charts - BBC News

ISIS Fighters Have Entered Germany Disguised as Refugees, Berlin’s Top Spy Says - Defense One

Turkey Says it Will Keep Taking in Refugees Despite Reaching Its Limits - TIME

On Turkish Side Of Border, Syrian Refugees Wait And Worry - NDTV

German Gangs Are Beating Up Immigrants After Syrian Refugees Sexually Assault Germany's Women - indiatimes

Slim asylum chances for 40 percent of refugees in Germany: report - Deutsche Welle (DW)

Germany’s Refugee Crisis Is Getting Worse - The Atlantic

Munich on high alert after warning of Paris-style terror attack - The Guardian

Syria Regional Refugee Response - Turkey - UNHCR

Turkey sends in aid for stranded Syrian refugees - Yahoo! News